How do you measure investor trust in real-time? Most IROs wait for the stock to drop, but the "Trust Barometer" lets you see the decay before the dislocation happens. By tracking the blowout in Dividend and Earnings Yields relative to 5-year averages, we analyze why Kraft Heinz’s narrative hit a breaking point—and the 4-step mandate every IRO needs to follow to defend their valuation.

0:00 Intro: Kraft Heinz Case Study Part 2

0:25 Defining the Trust Barometer: Dividend Yield & Earnings Yield

0:59 Historical Averages: The 5-Year KHC Baseline

1:25 The Blowout: Analyzing the 4.6% Yield Spread

1:58 Identifying the Inflection Point: Narrative vs. Sentiment

2:20 Real-Time Decision Making: Why KHC paused the split

2:51 The IRO Mandate: A 4-Step Process for Defense

3:15 Managing Liquidity: Building relationships outside the Top 20

3:45 Key Learnings: Yields as a scorecard for credibility

𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗖𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘄/ 𝗠𝗿. 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿: 𝗔 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝘃𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁

In Investor Relations, we often talk about valuation, but we rarely talk about the 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿.

On the contrary, the stock may see significant drops in value, which may catch the company and IRO by surprise if no one is watching The Trust Barometer.

You can see narrative and credibility decay in real-time by watching the interplay of two critical metrics: 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗬𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗬𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝘄𝗼 𝗚𝗮𝘂𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗕𝗮𝗿𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗲𝗿

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝗱 𝗬𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱 (𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗿): When your dividend yield blows out significantly above its historical average, the market is telling you it no longer believes in the "floor." Investors are pricing in a risk premium because they’ve lost faith that the cash return is sustainable or that the capital upside exists.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗬𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱 (𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗿): The earnings yield represents the cash-generating power of your business. When this blows out, the market is discounting your earnings. It’s a signal that says: "I see the profit on the page, but I don't trust the narrative behind it."

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆: 𝗡𝗮𝗿𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗗𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗹-𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗲

Look at Kraft Heinz (KHC) as the backdrop. The dividend yield is currently hovering around 6.6%, nearly 200 basis points above its 5-year average of 4.71%. Simultaneously, the adjusted earnings yield has expanded to 11.2% against a historical norm of 8.6%.

This isn't just a "cheap stock." This is a Barometer in the red.

When these yields move together toward historical extremes, it means the "Unknowns"—the debates over the spin-off, the cornerstone shareholder exits, and the secular trends—have overwhelmed the company’s current narrative. Today, $KHC announced it would pause the split in two.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗥𝗢’𝘀 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲

When the Trust Barometer breaks, the IRO must take action:

𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗺𝘂𝗻𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Talk to everyone—not just the top of the ledger—to (1) gather strategic intel on the root of the negative investor sentiment, and (2) start building the bench of relationships necessary to manage liquidity.

𝗞𝗲𝘆 𝗗𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀: Identify "The Unknown" and address it.

𝗗𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗦𝗲𝘁𝘀: Use third-party, objective data to re-anchor the narrative and provide a framework for the market.

𝗟𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗶𝘁𝘆: Deepen relationships with opportunistic "non-holders" who are waiting to step in when the yield becomes too attractive to ignore.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗕𝗼𝘁𝘁𝗼𝗺-𝗟𝗶𝗻𝗲

Yields represent a scorecard for company credibility.

When yield spreads widen significantly that is a signal for the Company and IRO to change communication and narrative approach with investors.